Giant Upset

The Super Bowl this year has many people predicting an easy Patriots win, even though there is a general acknowledgement that the Giants will bring a solid game plan and sound execution to the contest. Despite the consensus that the Giants are worthy of being in the game on Sunday after an impressive playoff run, almost every NFL fan and analyst has resigned him or herself to the fact that they are just 100% outmatched. Oh, how wrong they are.

There is legitimacy to the notion that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl: their prolific offense has set numerous records this year, they are arguably the best-coached team in the NFL, they have the most mentally prepared players with previous Super Bowl experience, and their quarterback is a sure-fire hall-of-famer who already has three championships while surrounded by arguably lesser talent. Oh, and then there’s that little part about the 18-0 record during which no team has been able to beat them (not even the Giants in week 17).

But the New York Football Giants didn’t just stumble into this game accidentally. With them, they carry the momentum of three road playoff wins and ten consecutive road victories this season (a league record). They powered their way through their schedule with an injury laden roster, a feat not many teams have been able to do. With those injuries, primarily in the secondary, they have an experienced team that now has depth by virtue back-ups being forced into starting roles. If Brandon Jacobs hadn’t gone out week 1, would we have discovered Derrick Ward’s potential? And if Ward hadn’t been injured a couple weeks later, Reuben Droughns might not have emerged as a threat. And after experimenting with all different combinations of that trio, Tom Coughlin has even devised a way to insert Ahmad Bradshaw into the running back rotation for some very productive carries. Jeremy Shockey goes out, enter Kevin Boss who is sure-handed, maybe not as dynamic a receiver, but is a better blocking tight end, which serves their run game.

How competent would the Pats’ offense be if Tom Brady went down with an injury? Is Matt Cassell ready to step in and win a game? Or if Randy Moss sustains an injury, is the receiving corps anywhere near as potent? Suddenly there isn’t the need to double cover him, and a defense can better protect itself against the slot receivers. Wes Welker’s production, while well earned, would not be possible without Moss split out wide. The Giants have a team that resembles the Patriot’s championship teams of the last five years: a cohesive unit that doesn’t lose stride if one piece is missing. However, with the Pats’ defense as porous as it currently is, perfecting the “bend but don’t break” approach, the team would be in trouble if their offense couldn’t be counted on for thirty points per game.

The Giants have been dubbed the road team for the big game and this could not suit them better. That mentality of being on the road will no doubt fuel their love for being the underdog and the Pats seem to have their guards down a bit during media week. Tom Brady is cocky, Randy Moss is cool as a cucumber, and Bill Belichick can do nothing but gush about his starting quarterback’s talent and intelligence. Just one big love-in for the Pats. However, the Giants know they’re expected to lose. While the Patriots bask in the glow of adoration and expectation, the G-Men are just focusing on the game. Sure, Plaxico Burress has gone on the record predicting a score, but for the most part, all the Giants can talk about is that they didn’t come this far just to be content with winning the NFC. They came to win a championship. This mentality is important to note when you think back to the NBA Finals last year. The Cavaliers celebrated so triumphantly after defeating the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals that one could tell that they hadn’t hoped to go any further. Not to say that any single player didn’t want to beat the Spurs, but it was more of a contentment; they never dreamed that they could make it as far as they did, so as a result, their emotional win over Detroit led to a release of adrenaline and sigh of relief rather than inspiring a bigger hunger to tackle the next feat. In New York’s win over Green Bay two weeks ago, you didn’t get the sense that they were in awe or disbelief that they pulled off the victory. I got the impression that they knew all along where they were headed, so the NFC title was an exciting accomplishment, but just another step in their season.

Mentality is everything in the Super Bowl. In any championship game of every sport, both teams are capable of winning, otherwise they wouldn’t have made it as far as they did. So nerves, clarity of mind, and confidence become everything. Take the Bills/Giants Super Bowl XXV as an example. The Bills were seven point favorites, they had a high-powered passing game, a stellar running back and a great run-stopping defense… sounds a little like New England this year, huh? But the Giants managed to win the game despite being outmatched on paper. Super Bowl experience is great, but it doesn’t give you anything tangible. You don’t get a touchdown bonus, you don’t get an extra down, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt on instant replay. All it does is help you prepare for the media frenzy and help you focus on Sunday, hopefully reminding you to treat it just like any other game. With all the adversity the Giants have overcome to get as far as they have, I wouldn’t put it past them to be mentally prepared enough to give the Patriots a run for their money. Not only that, they lost their regular season match-up by a mere three points. Since that game, the Giants have escalated their performance, while the Pats have remained even-keeled, if not taken a step back with their unimpressive win over a banged up Chargers squad.

The Giants are playing with house money, as the expression goes, and the Patriots are playing with the burden of knowing that they’re supposed to win. This psyche makes the Pats more vulnerable to a costly game-changing mistake like a fumble or dropped pass, a blocked kick, or errant snap.

And as amazing as a 19-0 season would be, the Giants victory would be great, if not better for the NFL. It would remind us that anything is possible, that sports will always be unpredictable, and that every team, including the Patriots, can gear up for a chance at being the first to achieve 19-0 next year.

Giants 27 Patriots 24.